The handwriting on the wall may be smudged a little when it comes to the predictions about a downward direction in home sizes. In a recent survey by Opinion Research Corporation 35 percent of respondents said if they got the right price for their current home they would downsize by choosing a smaller house, townhouse or apartment, while 26 percent said they would upsize. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that in 2006 completed homes reached their biggest sizes ever with an average floor area of 2469 square feet. In 1999 the average completed home’s size was 2223 square feet.

Then if you look at the sizes of homes sold, as reported by the Census Bureau, you see a more complete picture. The sales of homes under 1599 square feet actually dropped a percentage point from 2005 to 2006. During the same period sales of homes larger than 3000 square feet increased by 2 percent and that category has been steadily increasing, with no decreases, since 1999.

In her article here, Leslie Berkman reveals some industry predictions with comments from industry leaders about America’s trend in new home downsizing. One building industry official calls small homes the next development trend. A KB Homes spokesperson says the company has shrunk the sizes of small homes in its newest communities by 500 square feet and the sizes of its largest homes by 1200 square feet.

Baby boomers wanting smaller spaces with less maintenance and first time homebuyers are said to be behind the call for smaller-sized homes. Affordability in the face of the current housing slump is also cited as a reason that builders are adjusting their offerings.

Because building requires so much up-front work the major impact of the small home revolution is said to be about a year away, according to one Berkman source. In Arizona, Catherine Reagor of the Arizona Republic wrote that she is currently seeing a switch on the parts of homebuilders from offering incentives, to offering smaller homes to attract buyers.

In other places large homes are being scrutinized for limitations. In Wellesley, MA there is an effort underway to hold down the sizes of new or rebuilt homes. Fairfield, CT is struggling with a similar effort to limit home sizes there. San Francisco transportation and land-use officials emphasized recently that the city would need to move toward smaller homes, among other things, if it is to meet California’s greenhouse gas reduction goals.

In the face of all the press about a trend toward smaller homes it seems that the statistics aren’t yet bearing out the predictions. So, this is either a trend-in-the making, or a trend being made up. I suspect that time will reveal the reality.

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