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It seems like a good time to finish up the series I’ve been doing on the end of easy oil, or peak oil as it has come to be known. You can easily find the other posts on the blog by using the search tool with the term “peak oil.”
For those of you who are just tuning into this series you have to think about oil from the big picture. It is the cornerstone of far more industries and businesses than just being fuel for vehicles and home heating. Just think about plastics and the picture will start to come into focus. Then think about oil shortages and imagine whole industries with limited supplies, and the picture comes into sharp focus.
When the relentless hemorrhage of oil flowing into the Gulf of Mexico started, I recalled some of the figures people had bantered about to describe the amount of oil laying in America’s offshore areas. Enough to supply oil independence many said. The official estimate though is 76 billion barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a lot of oil, but the US consumes that much all by itself in just 10 years time. So I started wondering about the well-heeled, manly-attired woman who’s been strolling across my TV screen extolling the wonders of oil and the jobs it creates and how oil is here to stay. There’s plenty of it. Let’s get at it and use it up.
Where exactly does that kind of thinking come from? Well, I’ve come up with a sentence that describes it, and it goes like this: “We’ve been living on oil for so long we don’t know any other way to live, and so we’ve just got to keep living on oil.” And of course we all know who pays for the ads. Its the stockholders of oil companies. They could be your father, your brother, the old lady down the street, your minister and certainly many of the politicians you know. According to an American Petroleum Institute ad, oil company stock is a large part of America’s retirement fund, being invested in by pensions and as much as 75 percent of the mutual funds followed by Morningstar. And of course, judges – yes judges. It’s interesting to note the numbers of judges who have been recusing themselves from cases involving the BP debacle because they have vested interests in the company. All of this just shows how terribly, deeply America is invested in oil.
And so, what America gets is exactly what it invests in, and in this case that’s an economy based on a commodity that will run out.
Does it really matter what the timeline is for the oil running out? I mean, if the peak hits by 2030 that will affect many people who are alive today, but what if it doesn’t get serious until 2075? Well, one beneficial thing that means is the current crop of investors, politicians and all the others with vested interest in keeping the oil economy alive, may very well be checked out. You have to wonder about the sincerity of all the talk regarding saddling the next generation with debt, as many of the same voices, heavily invested in oil, turn a blind eye to the nation’s sickening dependence on a commodity that is running out, ultimately leaving the next generations without even the means to produce their own food, or keep the heat on during a cold winter night. The sad truth is we are so invested in oil that imaging a world with limited amounts of it, or worse, one without it, is almost, well, unimaginable.
So, in one way, it does matter when the oil runs out because if it was known for absolute certainty that supplies would be highly squeezed by 2030, our energy policies would be far different today. The well-heeled woman wouldn’t be strolling across my TV screen, and we’d be well immersed in coming to grips with our energy hoggishness, and far more deeply involved in developing alternative energy sources. And I’m talking about things far more enlightened than using corn for fuel.
Construction is a massive user of petroleum. And construction, (and I’m including architecture and engineering here as well), is in a prime position to become a leader in weaning the country from oil.
Here’s how it starts. It starts with architects, contractors, design build teams, and owners asking themselves some tough questions like:
- Is it possible to build on this site using mostly the raw materials that are here?
- Am I building simply for the money? Are there more important things that could be informing my decisions?
- How can we involve local artisans, craftsmen and others who have access to locally available materials that will do the jobs and create the products that we need so we don’t have to bring things in from far away?
- What is already available on the site that can be repurposed for our purpose?
- Is it possible that a thatched roof will add insulation value, be easily repairable and allow us to NOT have to use petroleum products for the roofing?
- Is it possible that going backward, is really going foreword?
- How can we make this abandoned building into one that is being used again?
- Could this site grow enough bamboo, or hemp, or straw, or flax to provide the bulk of the materials for the structure I envision?
And perhaps the one question that should be asked more than any other:
- Should I even build on this site?
Forty years ago, out in the deserts of Arizona, Paolo Soleri must have asked many of these questions as he set about to inspire the building of compact cities. Called Arcology, the concept avoids sprawl, uses just two percent of the land most cities use for the same size population, and takes advantage of natural earth processes for heating and cooling. This kind of thoughtful building is not nurtured in breakneck development driven primarily by the need to produce profits. No. It is for builders, architects and engineers who see their work as art, and who are willing to see the madness of the current economic model for what it is. A mad rush to nowhere.
The new economy has to transcend oil and if construction can do it, then so can everyone else. All it would take would be some wise construction leaders to pick up the banner, focus attention and be inspiring.
Sadly though, if the nation as a whole cannot get over its fragmented protection of self interest, then the oil economy will go on, until it’s too uncomfortable to continue. By then though, it will probably be too late.